The Central Bank of Türkiye has lowered its key interest rate from 43% to 40.5%, while also cutting other benchmarks for loans and borrowings. The decision was explained by slowing inflation and weak domestic demand, but the regulator emphasized that tight policy will remain until price stability is achieved.
The government presented an updated economic forecast. Inflation, expected to end this year at 28.5%, should gradually decline and reach 8% by 2028. At the same time, the economy will continue to grow: 3.8% in 2026, 4.3% in 2027, and 5% in 2028. The GDP growth forecast for 2025 was revised down to 3.3%, reflecting the priority of fighting inflation. By the end of 2025, Türkiye’s GDP should exceed $1.5 trillion, and per capita income should reach $17,000.
The currency market will remain volatile: the dollar exchange rate, now at 41.26 liras, may reach 53.76 by 2028. However, a positive signal came from the labor market: unemployment is expected to drop below 8% for the first time, reaching 7.8% by the end of the forecast period.
The state is also strengthening social support. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced an increase in interest-free marriage loans. Starting from January 2026, young couples will be able to receive 200,000–250,000 liras, with no payments required in the first two years. Additional deferrals are provided for families with children.
Amid these changes, gold prices in Türkiye continue to hit records. In three weeks, the price per gram rose by 500 liras, surpassing 4,870. Experts forecast a move toward 5,500–6,000 liras by the end of 2025, while gold remains the main investment tool for the coming years.
There is also good news in “green” energy: Türkiye ranked third in Europe in terms of growth in installed onshore wind power capacity.
Positive momentum is also seen in the real estate market. In August 2025, housing sales across the country grew by 6.8% to reach 143,319 units.
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