The UAE real estate market is slowing, but developers today are more resilient than in previous cycles — this is the conclusion reached by Moody’s Ratings in its new analytical report.
Despite the slowdown in sales pace, developers maintain strong positions. This is due to high levels of off-plan sales, stable financial indicators, and more balanced financing models compared to past periods.
According to the agency, the housing market is entering a phase of natural cooling: population growth is stabilizing, and a significant volume of projects under construction will be commissioned in the coming years. Additional pressure is coming from geopolitical risks in the region.
Statistics from the Dubai Land Department show that transactions with ready-made real estate in March and April decreased by approximately 51% compared to January and February. Off-plan sales have also slowed, but there is no sharp drop in demand. Instead of lowering prices, developers are focusing on more flexible payment terms, which helps maintain buyer interest without devaluing assets.
Among the major players — Emaar, Damac, Binghatti, and Arada — high resilience is noted. They have built a significant portfolio of off-plan sales and secured predictable revenue for several years ahead, which reduces the impact of short-term market fluctuations.
Additional stability comes from the features of financial models: buyers pay a significant portion of funds at early construction stages. This reduces dependence on external financing and supports cash flow even during a sales slowdown. Overall, developers’ debt burden remains moderate, while the share of equity is high.
Regulatory mechanisms also play an important role: the use of escrow accounts, contractual guarantees, and significant down payments reduce the risk of buyer defaults and give developers flexibility in project management.
Nevertheless, risks remain. In particular, possible disruptions in trade through the Strait of Hormuz could increase construction costs and affect project timelines. In addition, delays in payment inflows or a decrease in population influx could put pressure on companies’ liquidity.
Overall, although the market will cool in the short term, structural changes in financing, payment terms, and regulation make UAE developers much more resilient to external shocks than in previous years.
Two-year visa upon purchase of any apartment in Dubai
The main innovation of 2026 — a 2-year residency visa can now be obtained without a minimum property value threshold. This opens the door for a much larger number of buyers. An excellent opportunity for relocation, seaside living, and capital preservation in a stable jurisdiction. For a consultation on real estate in Dubai, write your phone number in the online chat on the website.